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relationship between the state of the economy and skirt lengths. He said that in good economic times women shortened their skirts to show. by the economist George Taylor, The Hemline Index draws an anecdotal association between economic prosperity and shorter skirt lengths. Economic Conditions and Hemlines: Here Come the Micro Miniskirts! given time (in relation to men who hold such degrees) and the corresponding hemlines. Specifically, as the number of educated women increased, skirts became shorter.
But I can tell you this — having spent tens of thousands of hours computer modeling almost every indicator you can conceive of, the most consistent and best performing indicators are almost always behaviorally-based. What I mean by that is that there is inevitably an element of human behavior that is either: My grandmother, Mimi, a seasoned successful investor in her own right after being widowed at a young age, used to chalk this up to what she called the "complexity problem" — as in, if it's too complex for me to understand, it's a problem.
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She didn't use the term like I do today in a non-linear sense. She simply reasoned that if something was too complex to explain to her, it wasn't worth her time or her money. Skirt Chasing and the Stock Markets And that brings me to women's skirts. Mimi encouraged me to look closely at what women were wearing because it would make me a better husband someday because eventually I would need to buy gifts for my bride she was old school. She also explained how it would make me a better investor.
According to Mimi, the length of women's skirts reflects both societal conditions and economic potential. When I questioned her wisdom on this one — as I did with many things she taught me about investing in those days — Mimi noted that the link between women's hem lengths and stock market conditions was established in by Wharton economist George Taylor.
Long story short…pun absolutely intended…short skirts point to happy-go-lucky times while longer choices reflect more conservative underpinnings that, according to Taylor, existed because women couldn't afford stockings. From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers puts it this way, observing "that the rise and fall of great civilizations are biased by the attitudes a society holds to the future.
And, that the reverse is true when things are dour or the social mood is uncertain because they reflect the mass psychology. The "Posh" Spice Indicator So what are women's hemlines telling us now?
Economic Growth vs Skirt Length – the Hemline Index | Financial Jesus
Let's start with Victoria Beckham. Formerly known as "Posh" Spice," a reference to her former life in the British girl band, the Spice Girls, she used to wear minis so small that they were rumored to cause heart palpitations during the go-go years of the s. I can't say I disagree. Lately, though, she's been wearing so-called "pencil" dresses with hems that run well below the knee.Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Explains The Skirt Length Index - Money - TIME
Even Angelina Jolie is in on the longer hemline action. I did some checking with fashionistas in London and New York and learned that this is not just in my imagination. At 33 inches, this year's hemlines are, on average, the longest they've been since the Great Depression. This suggests some very conservative times ahead. Supporting the premise was that the cost and availability of fabrics have historically affected the hemline of skirts, say economists. In boom times, when producers typically charge more for their yarn or textiles, designers would make skirts shorter to cut costs.
Shils, the George W. But some fashion historians don't think the hemline-economy link ever held up that well. That's because these days, there are so many different types of clothing that one particular trend in fashion doesn't necessarily point to a direction for the economy.
What Skirt Lengths Tell You About The Stock Market
The wide availability of different fabrics and inexpensive manufacturing techniques enable designers to offer something to suit the tastes of every shopper. Consumers today have more fashion choices than ever before, and can express their individuality no matter what the fashion magazines are touting. To be sure, retail has been one of the many casualties of the almost two-year-old recession. In December, one of the most important shopping months of the year, retail clothing sales were flat as a lack of new styles failed to excite consumers, forcing many retailers to offer deep discounts to lure budget-conscious shoppers.
But if sales of mini skirts do take off, analysts say that would be a good sign for the economy and the retail sector, because it would show that consumers are willing to take a chance on an article of clothing that is completely different, not just something to replace an item that has worn out.
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